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Ausgabe 3-2009

Themenschwerpunkt:
Klimawandel und Sicherheit
Climate Change and Security

INHALT

Editorial | download full article as pdf
Seite III

Themenschwerpunkt:
Klimawandel und Sicherheit
Climate Change and Security

Beiträge aus Sicherheitspolitik und Friedensforschung

Neuerscheinung
Seite 191

Annotationen | download full article as pdf
Seite 195

Besprechungen | download full article as pdf
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ENGLISH ABSTRACTS

The Securitization of Climate Change and the Power of Conceptions of Security
Michael Brzoska
This paper looks at recent studies that have addressed climate change as a security issue. Posing climate change as a problem for security has provided it with a major boost in attention. However, it raises the potential of ‘securitization’, i.e. that the issue is primarily addressed via traditional means of security policy. The paper analyses how selected studies frame the issue of climate change and security and considers what recommendations they make on dealing with the problem. Among its findings are that the framing of climate change as a security issue is not based on well founded analysis but is rather largely driven by ad hoc theories on the links between environmental degradation and violent conflict. A second finding is that different conceptualisations of security lead to different types of recommendation on how to deal with the consequences of climate change as they relate to peace and security. Securitizing the issue therefore does not necessarily lead the authors of studies to prescribe predominantly traditional security instruments for dealing with crises. However, although the authors reach different conclusions, their diagnosis of climate change as a security issue is likely to push the climate change discourse towards the use of traditional security instruments. A third finding of the paper is therefore that the mixing of different conceptions of security may increase the ‘attention grabbing’ power of studies but it will also muddle their messages.

Krisenprävention durch Klima- und Energiesicherheit
Christoph Bals und Rixa Schwarz
The climate, food and energy crises have shown the relevance of climate, energy and food security. Tackling these three threats together would serve the prevention of future crises and thus foster human security. Co-operation is another key aspect of such a strategy. The EU has made first steps since 2007 towards handling energy and climate security with an ambitious energy and climate package. So far the current economic crisis has weakened but not fundamentally changed that approach. The next challenge for the new climate and energy leadership role of the EU is the financial package for the Copenhagen agreement at the end of 2009. The March EU Council did not send the expected strong signal and the challenge for the new climate and energy security strategy of the EU has not been yet met. But the ambition of climate action of developing countries also depends on the level of financial and technology co-operation.

Klimawandel und Sicherheit im Nahen Osten
Hans Günter Brauch
The year 2007 was a turning point for a securitization of climate change for international (UK, Germany, EU), national (USA) and human (Human Security Network, GECHS) security. The complex linkages between the earth and human systems are illustrated with the PEISOR model. One of the most affected regions with a limited problem awareness on climate change is the Near East. The effects, impacts and societal outcomes of climate change for security require a policy response by the countries in the Near East and by the European Union to avoid that these trends may pose security dangers. A solar initiative in the framework of the Mediterranean Union is suggested as part of a transformation strategy.

Ökonomische Aspekte des Klimaschutzes
Stefan Bayer
The paper concentrates on some economic aspects of climate change. The fundamental trends and the scientific state of the art are presented firstly, followed by some basic economic implications. After that our considerations focus on two important economic aspects of climate change: Chapter two highlights its long-term character and the asymmetric distribution of benefits and costs, leading to a political bias in favor of short-term political action. Chapter three describes and investigates the tradable permit approach to reach politically given climate targets. Our analysis stresses the advantages of this instrument and offers reasons why its political configuration must be seen as main reason for some deficiencies in reducing GHG-emissions.

Klimawandel und Wasserkrisen der Zukunft
Dirk Messner
Climate change is in its core not an environmental problem, because the global ecosystems will balance out also in times of an accelerated global warming. But global temperature increases beyond two degrees Celsius could overstrain the adjustability of nations and economies within the next decades as well as increase international distribution conflicts, especially concerning water, land and food. Climate change represents therefore a high security risk and climate policy becomes preventive security policy.

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Multipolarity Under the Magnifying-Glass: Establishing Maritime Security Off the Horn of Africa
Sebastian Bruns
This essay explores the strategic implications that the fight against piracy off Somalia has for the international community. After giving a summary of what maritime security is, the essay explores how to deal with the threat, surveys the actors and looks into who can and who is willing to act and how. Using the case of Somalia as an example, it sketches the realities of 21st century international power relations and outlines the emerging hazards to the global system’s stability. The article also addresses the issue of whether piracy and maritime terrorism should be considered as two sides of one coin, or merely two completely separate issues for security policy-makers.

From Resistance to State-Building: Dealing with the Ambiguities of the Hamas Experiment in Gaza
Margret Johannsen
In the past eight years, 8,000 rockets and mortar bombs fired from the Gaza Strip have hit Israeli territory. Compared to the suicide bombings of the past, they seem an almost negligible threat. However, the rocket fire may well turn into a strategic threat which may also prevent external pressure on Israel to end the occupation of Palestinian territory. Based on this assessment, this article discusses various options to cope with this variety of guerrilla warfare. Taking the possession and firing of rockets as a prominent case of militancy, the article shows that the approaches taken so far do not provide satisfactory answers to the problem, then suggests alternatives, namely engaging Hamas, to deal with the threat, and links them to Palestinian institution building as part of the peace process.

Zimbabwe still at the Crossroads? Domestic Stalemate, Regional Appeasement, and International Half-Heartedness
Martin Welz and Julian Junk
This article examines the larger political picture of Zimbabwe focusing on last year’s developments at the domestic, regional and international level. It finds that Zimbabwe is on a downward spiral of domestic stalemate, regional appeasement, and international half-heartedness, and that there is a need for a coherent strategic effort to replace this trias with domestic change, regional active engagement and international steady commitment. Otherwise both Zimbabwe and the region risk long-term instability with devastating national and regional consequences. In the end, the article outlines and assesses various scenarios for the future development of Zimbabwe, of which the most likely is a kind of status quo conservation.